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By K.D. Pavate

ISBN-10: 8172361335

ISBN-13: 9788172361334

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Sample text

Poisson distribution has a curious history. About 150 years ago it came to the notice of the German army that one of the DISTRIBUTION OF CHANCE 55 causes of accidental deaths was on account of horses kicking the soldiers. A mathematician amongst the officers kept an account of such deaths. He used this data to prove that such accidental deaths followed the Poisson distribution. They were astonished that a law discovered by a French man was applicable to their horses! In today's highly mechanised world the horses have given way to automotive vehicles.

For instance, if you are in the business of selling light bulbs, you will soon find that the number of bulbs sold (and hence profits made) depends on how well the bulbs have been manufactured and on how reliable they are. If the supervision in the factory has not been strict, then there are bound to be a large number of defective bulbs being manufactured. The customer will no doubt be upset at having to purchase such a poor brand of bulbs. He will shift his preference to some other brand. So, we see that negligence in supervision has a direct bearing on the profits of the manufacturing organization.

There are a number of events which might interest the teacher. These events can be identified on the sample space. There are seven sample points and each one has the same probability of being selected. The probability of a student being selected at random is 1/7. The probabilities of the four events W, B, M and F are 4 / 7 , 3 / 7 , 4 / 7 and 3 / 7 respectively MODELS FOR UNCERTAINTY 31 Addition law of probability The sum of these probabilities do not add up to 1 for reasons which will become apparent soon.

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A Matter of Chance by K.D. Pavate


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